On 15 October in Lugano, we revisited the projections presented in April on commodities, gold, the US dollar and equity markets, and outlined the investment methodology behind our portfolio management approach.
On Thursday, 15 October, LMP Finance Suisse SA hosted its Investor Day 2026 in the frescoed hall of the Centro Pastorale San Giuseppe in Lugano. The event, reserved for clients, family offices and financial industry professionals, revisited the same slides presented on 22 April, comparing the projections made at the time with actual market developments over the following months.
A Change in Approach, Not in Sentiment
In his opening remarks, founder Antonio Massardo highlighted the purpose of the event: to step away from the daily noise of financial news for ninety minutes and focus on long-term market trends. At the heart of the discussion was a view that LMP has maintained for some time: the traditional 60/40 portfolio model, in which bonds are perceived as the low-risk component, no longer provides the same level of protection as in the past. Since 2022, the correlation between equities and bonds has turned positive, driven by supply-side rather than demand-driven inflation. Adopting a different approach means identifying trends that demonstrate resilience and persistence over time, rather than relying on a static allocation of capital.
The Commodity Supercycle, Five Years On
Angelo Prataviera, Head of Portfolio Management, opened his presentation with a video from August 2021, when gold was trading at USD 1,750, oil at USD 61, and interest rates were negative. Even then, LMP was already discussing the emergence of a new commodity supercycle, the first in ninety years, expected to unfold over years rather than months. Comparing those levels with today’s market prices illustrated how developments have broadly followed the trajectory projected at the time. One principle was emphasized throughout the presentation: projections, not predictions. Projections can only be formulated when specific, measurable conditions are met.
Gold, Gold Mining Equities and the US Dollar
The presentation moved from charts on gold and gold mining equities, featuring price targets established between 2023 and 2024, to the US dollar, on which LMP had adopted a contrarian position in April, challenging the prevailing market consensus. It was explained how, in January 2026, a political statement coincided with a previously identified technical level, marking the peak of the euro against the US dollar. This provided an important lesson: market tops can be defined by a specific event, rather than necessarily developing through a gradual process.
Equity Markets: From “Certain Recession” to Today
The third part of the presentation revisited October 2022, when models from major financial institutions indicated that a recession was virtually inevitable. That recession never materialized, and one of the most significant equity market rallies of recent years began shortly thereafter. As Prataviera emphasized, the key lesson is that valuations alone do not constitute a reliable signal to exit equity markets, a conclusion also supported by a recent Goldman Sachs study. Capital flows, market cycles, market depth and investor sentiment all matter, particularly when analyzed together.
How LMP’s Investment Engine Works
The final section focused on LMP’s investment methodology: a unified investment process integrating quantitative analysis, cyclical analysis, capital flows, systematic market screening and fundamental assessment. The framework is built around five independent inputs, with each signal required to withstand validation against the others, while the final investment decision remains firmly in the hands of the portfolio management team. The investment engine operates without leverage, structured products or third-party funds, maintaining positions that can be liquidated within 48 hours. The four portfolio management profiles differ only in the proportion of assets allocated to the investment engine.
Looking Ahead
The event concluded with LMP’s outlook for the coming years: a US dollar expected to remain strong, a US equity market cycle that, according to LMP’s models, has yet to enter its final phase, and a commodity supercycle that is expected to continue playing an important role in portfolio management. Throughout, the guiding principle remains disciplined risk management: reducing exposure when short-term signals call for caution and waiting for the next actionable signal before repositioning.
We would like to thank all participants for joining us.
The information presented is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation or an investment recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
